Breakfast Ball #43: The Final Four

In This Week’s Newsletter:

The Real Decisions: Who will be the final four players in the European Team?

In last week’s newsletter, we looked at the top 8 players that will more than likely be on the plane to Bethpage Black next September. Today, we examine the final four spots on the team—a task that was anything but easy. There are 10-12 strong contenders vying for these places, and if an unexpected player steps up with a major win, they’ll likely secure a seat on the plane (see Brian Harman, Open Champion 2023).

One interesting dynamic at play this time around is the changes made to the qualification system. Points are more heavily weighted toward PGA Tour events and majors, making it quite difficult for a player on the DP World Tour to qualify without winning multiple times. Furthermore, two of the captains picks are likely to be used on LIV players Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton, unless they qualify through the majors alone. With that in mind, we choose our final four players for the flight to New York…

Tier 3: Checking In

It’s safe to say that at least one Højgaard will be on the team in New York—but which one? Nicolai represented Europe in 2023, showing flashes of promise in his rookie season on the PGA Tour before fading toward the end. Meanwhile, his twin brother, Rasmus, made a statement by defeating Rory McIlroy to win the Irish Open, securing his PGA Tour card for 2025 and his place atop the current European team qualification rankings. Statistically, Rasmus has the edge on the DP World Tour, ranking 12th in strokes gained tee-to-green and in driving distance (compared to Nicolai’s 29th and 19th, respectively)—a skill set well-suited to the likely setup at Bethpage. This advantage could be what earns him the spot.

Sepp Straka was Mr. Consistent in 2024. The Austrian only missed 6 cuts in 26 starts, finishing in the top 25 11 times. He never really challenged for a win, but his performances were enough for 27th in the FedEx Cup rankings. 2023 was Straka’s first appearance on a Ryder Cup team and he performed admirably, picking up a win with Shane Lowry in foursomes. The one area Straka may need to improve is his driving distance, where he ranked 142nd on tour this season.

Two years ago, Stephan Jaeger recognized that to reach the upper echelon of the PGA Tour, a change was essential. As courses continued to lengthen, his driving distance—ranked 155th on tour with an average of 293 yards—was holding him back. So, he enlisted a strength and fitness coach, redefined his approach, and in 2024 climbed to 24th in driving distance, now averaging 310 yards. “It’s kind of changed my game. Before, I was always just trying to keep my card. Now, I want to reach a level where I can be a top-30 player out here.” This season, Jaeger claimed his first PGA Tour victory, and his game looks well-suited for Bethpage Black. He has a real chance to earn a spot on the team.

It may be surprising to see Matt Fitzpatrick occupying the final spot on this Ryder Cup team. As one of European golf’s biggest stars and the 2022 U.S. Open champion, his talent is undeniable. However, his recent form has been concerning; over the past year, he’s fallen from 7th to 35th in the world rankings, managing only three top-10 finishes in 2024. Fitzpatrick’s Ryder Cup record also leaves room for improvement, with just one win and seven losses in eight matches. While I anticipate a return to form this season, given his modest Ryder Cup track record, he’ll need to perform well to secure his place on the team.

A lot can change over the course of a year, and there’s a good chance some (if not all) of these picks may prove wrong. This lineup would introduce just two new players compared to the 2023 team, which is lower than the typical turnover. However, given the team’s outstanding performance in Rome and Luke Donald’s return as captain, this continuity feels entirely plausible.

Next week will be the final edition of our three part series predicting the lineup. Who are the 8 players most likely to challenge for these final four spots? See you then.

Other News and Results

• 🇰🇷 Ben An won the Genesis Championship in his home country on the DP World Tour, beating fellow Korean Tom Kim in a playoff

  • Kim had a putt to win the tournament on the final hole, but as he looked to walk it in, it agonizingly lipped out

• 🇯🇵 Nico Echavarria prevailed by one shot over Justin Thomas in the ZOZO Championship on the PGA Tour

  • JT could not get a putt to drop on the back nine on Sunday, losing 2.6 strokes to the field in putting

  • This was Echavarria’s second PGA Tour victory, and he qualified for the 2025 Masters with the win

• 🇮🇪 Padraig Harrington won his 9th Champions Tour event with a victory at the Simmons Bank Championship

  • Harrington’s drive on the 72nd hole carried 293 yards; not bad for a 53-year-old

  • The Champions Tour will move onto its final event of the season next week

Coming up this week on Tour

• Neither the PGA Tour or the DP World Tour have an event this week!

If you have any feedback for the newsletter or would like to get in touch, I would love to hear from you! Email [email protected] or message us on Twitter/X at @BlueHorizonGolf. Thank you for reading!