Breakfast Ball #44: On The Outside Looking In

In This Week’s Newsletter:

The Next Eight: Who are the eight players currently outside the projected team who could make a push?

I have picked the 12 players that I believe will be on Luke Donald’s team in the last two editions of the newsletter. However, the likelihood that all 12 of those selections are correct is slim, so today I will present 8 players that have a chance at breaking into the team next year. We will come back here in 9 months to see if I was any good at this at all...

Legitimate Contenders

Sergio Garcia is a Ryder Cup legend. Say what you want about his antics and general behavior on the course, he has 10 Ryder Cup appearances and holds the record for the most Ryder Cup points scored by a European with 28.5 points. He resigned his DP World Tour membership in 2023 due to fines he was facing from playing on LIV Golf, making him ineligible for selection to the Ryder Cup team. However, Luke Donald has said that they have spoken and Garcia is open to paying his fines to regain his DPWT membership. It has been reported that these fines amount to £700,000, but the $17,634,643 he has earned on LIV (not including his $40M contract) should help with that.

Nicolai Højgaard made his Ryder Cup debut in 2023 while his twin brother Rasmus watched from the sidelines. He kicked off his rookie year on the PGA Tour with a strong 2nd-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open but managed just one other top-20 finish, briefly leading at The Masters before settling for T16. This season, he missed qualifying for the DP World Tour Championship, an event he won last year. To secure a spot on the team, Højgaard will need a significantly stronger second season on the PGA Tour.

Earlier this year, I identified 6 players that have put their name in the hat for consideration for the European team. Matthieu Pavon was one of those names. The Frenchman enjoyed a stellar 2024 season, clinching victory at the Farmers Insurance Open over Højgaard and following up with an impressive 5th-place finish at the U.S. Open and T12 result at The Masters. However, Pavon relies on his putter to get hot to challenge for victories, and a more well-rounded skillset will likely be needed to succeed at Bethpage Black.

Thomas Detry was also highlighted in that newsletter for his consistent performances in 2024. His standout result came with a T4 finish at the PGA Championship, securing him a top-50 spot in the FedEx Cup rankings and granting him access to the all-important signature events in 2025. While a tour win would likely elevate him into serious contention, another year of consistent play should keep him firmly in the conversation.

Long Shots

Matt Wallace has been close to making the Ryder Cup team in the past. He won three times on the European Tour in 2018, but was snubbed as a captain’s pick. However, he finished in 3rd place when the PGA Championship was held at Bethpage Black in 2019, and is determined to make sure he is in the team next year. "I will be a Ryder Cup rookie, but I have played on the PGA Tour for five years now against the best players in the world. I've beaten a lot of them, I'm not scared and I'm up for the fight.” Wallace finished 112th in the FedEx Cup rankings this season, so will need a significant uptick in form to make the team.

The defining characteristic of Bethpage Black is straightforward: it’s extremely long. Data Golf confirms that driving distance is a stronger predictor of success here than at any other PGA Tour venue. Luke Donald will need players who excel off the tee, and both Niklas Nørgaard and Tom McKibbin fit that mold perfectly.

Nørgaard and McKibbin are 5th and 7th respectively in strokes gained off the tee across the world over the past 12 months. While both players are below average in approach play, their driving ability would be a huge asset in foursomes play and should fit the course well. Nørgaard has secured his PGA Tour card for 2025 through the DP World Tour rankings, giving him the best chance to gather points for automatic qualification. On the other hand, McKibbin currently sits one spot outside the PGA Tour qualification places with one event to play on the DP World Tour. This weekend will go a long way to determining whether he can make a push for the team.

Aaron Rai enjoyed a breakout season in 2024, posting five top-five finishes, including his first PGA Tour win at the Wyndham Championship. While Rai ranked in the top ten in strokes gained from tee to green, the main aspect of his game that is subpar is driving distance. Rai ranked 152nd on the PGA Tour in 2024 with an average drive of 293 yards. His accuracy off the tee and strong approach play compensate for his shorter drives, but given the demands of the course, Rai will likely need to push for an automatic qualification spot to earn serious consideration from Luke Donald.

These picks may look entirely stupid toward the end of next August when Donald announces his team, but as of right now this is the team I believe we will be seeing in New York next September:

Thanks for following along over the last few weeks!

Other News and Results

• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Paul Waring won his 2nd ever DP World Tour title and first since 2018 with a victory at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, the first of two events in the DPWT playoffs

  • This is a life-changing win for the 39-year-old, who is now guaranteed a 2025 PGA Tour card

  • Waring finished two shots ahead of Tyrrell Hatton in second, and a further shot ahead of Rory McIlroy, Thorbjorn Olesen, and Matt Wallace in third

• 🇩🇪 67-year-old Bernhard Langer continued a remarkable return from achilles surgery to win his 47th (yes, 47) PGA Champions Tour title at the Charles Schwab Cup Championship

  • Langer holed a 35-foot birdie putt on the final hole to win the tournament by one and continue an 18 year winning streak on tour

• 🤷 Austin Eckroat won the WWT Championship on the PGA Tour fall series

  • These are the events that just don’t make a ton of sense to me. Players are striving to make the top 125 of the FedEx Cup rankings to secure their card for 2025, but the fields are weak and viewership is low

  • The top European was 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Harry Hall, who finished in T14

  • The Europeans likely to lose their PGA Tour cards include 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Martin Laird, 🇫🇷 Paul Barjon, 🇫🇷 Martin Trainer, and 🇧🇪 Adrien Dumont de Chassard, who has had an extremely tough year after bursting onto the Korn Ferry Tour last season

Coming up this week on Tour

• The DP World Tour Championship will end the 2024 golf season in Dubai

  • This will be worth watching as significant Ryder Cup qualification points and 2025 PGA Tour cards are up for grabs

  • Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Bob MacIntyre, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, and many others will be teeing it up

• Only complete golf sickos will be watching the Butterfield Bermuda Championship on the PGA Tour

  • For those of you who enjoy YouTube golf, both Wesley and George Bryan will be playing in the tournament

If you have any feedback for the newsletter or would like to get in touch, I would love to hear from you! Email [email protected] or message us on Twitter/X at @BlueHorizonGolf. Thank you for reading!