Breakfast Ball #64: Predicting The Masters Winner for Dummies

Week 2 of The Masters prep is here! As a reminder, next week’s newsletter will be released on Tuesday morning as it will be a full preview edition for The Masters. Beast of a newsletter today, and next week will be no different.

In This Week’s Newsletter:

Masters Prep Week 2: What are the Biggest Predictors of Success at Augusta National?

Next week I will make my predictions for who can win The Masters. While you never know what the golf gods will bring, there is plenty of data and evidence we can use to narrow down the list of potential victors.

The biggest indicator of future success at Augusta? Past Success.

According to Data Golf, Augusta National is the course where past performance is by far the strongest predictor of future success. Historically, experience has proven invaluable at Augusta. Masters rookies tend to perform 0.2 strokes worse than expected, while players with six or more appearances outperform expectations by the same margin. Of the last ten Masters champions, seven had already recorded at least one top-five finish at Augusta before slipping on the green jacket, and all ten had previously finished inside the top 40.

Strong approach play is the most important skill a player needs to contend.

As I mentioned in last week’s newsletter, Augusta’s fairways rank as the third widest on the PGA Tour over the past 15 years. Driving accuracy isn’t as critical here as it is on other courses - the key is simply keeping the ball in play. The real challenge begins once the ball is on the fairway. Approach play is where the tournament is often won or lost, with 8 of the last 10 champions finishing inside the top 6 in strokes gained approach for the week.

If they do not hit the green, it is paramount that they can get up and down for par.

Approach shots are extremely difficult, which means players find themselves chipping out of Augusta’s tight, uneven lies very regularly. All of the last 10 Masters champions have gained at least 0.26 strokes around the green per round in the 16 rounds leading into the tournament.

Players who have >0.25 strokes gained (SG) around the green and are in the top 10 in SG approach over the last 3 months: Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry, and Justin Thomas.

Players will be tested, they just have to survive. Avoid double bogeys or worse.

The average Masters champion makes around 9 bogeys over the course of the week, proving that mistakes are inevitable, even for those who win. The key is limiting the damage. More often than not, it’s better to take your medicine, accept the bogey, and move on. In fact, only 3 of the last 10 champions have made a double bogey en route to victory, one of them being Jon Rahm, who famously opened the 2023 tournament with a double bogey on the first hole before recovering to claim the green jacket.

When Augusta does give you opportunities, you have to take them.

Since 2000, Masters champions have averaged an impressive -8.5 on Augusta National’s par 5s. Notably, 12 of the last 14 winners ranked inside the top 40 in par 5 scoring during the season leading up to their victory. Success at Augusta requires not just skill, but the ability to balance patience with well-timed aggression. As Scottie Scheffler put it, he’ll always go for the green in two on the par-5 13th because, in his words, “it is an area of the golf course where you need to attack.”

As any golfer knows, anything can happen on any given day. But hopefully these indicators will point you in the right direction when you pick your own champion.

Masters Prep Week 2: 10 Things to Watch in the 2025 Masters

1: What has changed about the golf course?

Augusta National was hit hard by Hurricane Helene last year. 130mph winds knocked down a number of trees across the property, including at the iconic par-3 16th hole, where they had to revamp the green as a result of the damage. Rory McIlroy made a scouting trip to Augusta last week and commented on some of the changes: “There’s four greens that are new this year that they’ve redone. You just sort of, you have a look at those and see if there’s any new hole positions they give you, stuff like that.”

2: Will there be any adverse weather conditions?

The Friday of the 2024 Masters was one of the most difficult rounds of the last 10 years, with the scoring average coming in at 3.07 strokes over par. Just 8 of the 89 players were able to card a round under par. This was mainly due to extremely windy conditions which made for some incredible viewing, as the world’s best were tested to their limits. Once the forecasts start coming in toward the end of this week, keep an eye out for wind or rain.

Or, if you are normal and don’t check the weather of a random town in south east Georgia, just wait until next week’s newsletter and I will tell you.

3: Can Ludvig Åberg follow up his heroics of 2024?

First-timers typically don’t fare well at Augusta. The last rookie to win the tournament was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. Ludvig Aberg’s performance at the 2024 Masters was the closest anyone has come to winning on their first attempt since then. However, he didn’t make similar waves at the other majors, missing the cut at The Open and the PGA Championship, and finishing in T12 at the US Open. Can he recreate some of the magic from 2024?

4: The Rookies

There are going to be a number of players making their first appearance at The Masters including Thomas Detry, Rasmus Højgaard, and Aaron Rai. It is always interesting to watch these players navigate their way around Augusta for the first time.

5: Tommy Fleetwood’s Quest for a Major

Tommy Fleetwood has quietly built a reputation as a model of consistency at The Masters. In eight appearances, he’s missed the cut just once and has recorded four top-20 finishes. Yet, his career in America has been defined by near-misses. Fleetwood is simply too talented not to eventually break through on the PGA Tour — and there would be no better place to end that drought than at Augusta National.

6: Which Jon Rahm Will We See?

Since Jon Rahm made the move to LIV Golf, the only time most people watch him is during the four majors each year. His results in last year’s majors were as follows: T45, Cut, DNP, T7. Not the Jon Rahm we all know and love. His LIV Golf form has been exceptional, but in smaller, weaker fields. Let’s see if he can step up on the big stage once more.

7: Can Matt Fitzpatrick Regain his Form?

At the start of 2024, Matt Fitzpatrick was ranked 8th in the world and was one of the key pieces of Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup team in Rome. Now he is ranked 69th, and without a top 20 finish since last August. Augusta National has treated him well over the years, with three straight top 25 results in the last three years. He needs to improve his form or he could be at risk of missing out on a place in Donald’s team this year at Bethpage.

8: Scottie Scheffler’s Dominance

Only three players have ever won the Masters two years in a row: Sir Nick Faldo, Jack Nicklaus, and Tiger Woods. Scottie Scheffler has a fantastic chance to add himself to that illustrious list.

9: Bernhard Langer’s Final Farewell

67-year-old Bernhard Langer will return to Augusta for the final time, 40 years after he won the first of his two green jackets. It is time to pay homage to a legend of the game.

10: Rory’s Search for the Grand Slam

Rory McIlroy is playing some of the best golf of his career right now. Despite some good results over the years, Augusta has always been a tough mental test for him ever since his meltdown in 2011. This will be his 17th Masters, and only one player has ever won their first green jacket on their 16th start or later: Sergio Garcia, when he won the tournament on his 19th start. It is a big ask, but he has the game to do it.

This is the second of four weeks of Masters Content coming your way!

Monday, March 24th: My three favorite holes at Augusta National

Today: 10 things to watch in the 2025 Masters & what does the history of the tournament tell us about who can win in 2025?

Tuesday, April 8th: The full 2025 Masters Preview, with winner picks and predictions for every European in the field

Monday, April 14th: A recap of the 2025 Masters, with shots of the tournament, prediction outcomes, and everything you need to know about this year’s edition

Other news and results from the golfing world:

• 🧑‍🍳 Min Woo Lee (also known as “The Chef” or “Dr. Chipinski”) won his first PGA Tour title at the Houston Open, one shot ahead of Scottie Scheffler and Gary Woodland

  • Lee had a five shot lead on the back nine, but four straight birdies from Scheffler and an eagle from Woodland pushed him to the final hole

  • Rory McIlroy had a good week, shooting weekend rounds of 65 and 64 to finish in T5 - however, he did say after the round that his elbow has been giving him some issues…

  • Finland’s Sami Valimaki had his best finish of the year so far in 4th

• 🔥 Eugenio Chacarra was critical of LIV Golf earlier this year after he didn’t resign his contract with Fireballs GC. Now he is a winner on the DP World Tour

  • The Spaniard overcame the DLF Golf and Country club to win the Hero Indian Open by two strokes

    • Only three players finished the tournament under par

  • Due to his time playing on LIV, he had no playing status on any major tour and needed a sponsor’s exemption to play this event. Thanks to the win, he now has DP World Tour status for the next two years

  • “ I decided when I was an amateur to join the other side of golf but now jumping out and not knowing what I was going to be able to play. But I’ve stayed patient, and I know when I play well I’m one of the best players in the world.”

• 🚗 Atlanta Drive, consisting of Justin Thomas, Billy Horschel, Patrick Cantlay, and Lucas Glover, won the first season of the TGL after defeating New York Golf Club in the playoff final last week

  • The first season of TGL was a relative success, and it produced some great moments including this putt by Horschel in the final

• The Masters put out a video this week and it is well worth watching: Every Hole at Augusta National with Scottie Scheffler

• This sick “Thai Spinner” from Keith Mitchell wins my shot of the week

Coming up on tour this week:

• 🤠 The Valero Texas Open is the next event on the PGA Tour at TPC San Antonio

• 🐊 LIV Golf returns to the US for LIV Miami at Trump National Doral’s Blue Monster

If you have any feedback for the newsletter or would like to get in touch, I would love to hear from you! Email [email protected] or message us on Twitter/X at @BlueHorizonGolf. Thank you for reading!