Breakfast Ball #65: 2025 Masters Preview

The Masters is here. Play will begin on Thursday morning with the traditional ceremonial ceremony with former champions.

Today, we preview the tournament by evaluating each European player in the field and providing our picks to win it all. Lets get into it!

In This Week’s Newsletter:

Masters Preview: European Player Predictions

Ludvig Aberg 🇸🇪 (16/1)

Best Result: 2nd | 2024 Result: 2nd

Goal: Top 10 | Prediction: Top 20

Last year’s Masters was Ludvig’s arrival onto the major stage, and what an arrival it was. While many Europeans would have known about his potential from 2023’s Ryder Cup, the world knew about Ludvig after the 2024 Masters. Seven players have finished second in their debut since Fuzzy Zoeller won on his debut in 1979, but only one has gone on to win the tournament thereafter: Jordan Spieth in 2015. Ludvig’s putting made up for a lackluster game around the greens last year, as he finished top of the field in strokes gained (SG) putting. He is 142nd in SG around the greens on the PGA Tour this year, which is simply not the profile needed for a Masters victory.

José Luis Ballester 🇪🇸 (750/1)

Best Result: First Appearance | 2024 Result: N/A

Goal: Low Amateur | Prediction: Miss Cut

Ballester became the first Spaniard to win the US Amateur last year, earning himself a spot at The Masters. He is currently the 4th ranked amateur player in the world, and will graduate from Arizona State in May. There are strong rumors that he is pursuing a spot on LIV Golf, but for now his focus will be on The Masters. Making the cut in his major debut would be a great achievement.

Laurie Canter 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (175/1)

Best Result: First Appearance | 2024 Result: N/A

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Miss Cut

Earlier this year Laurie Canter became the first former LIV player to play in a PGA Tour event, as he qualified for the Players due to his strong performances on the DP World Tour. Canter missed the cut by one stroke in his first appearance at TPC Sawgrass, and while he has the potential to make the jump to the PGA Tour, your debut at The Masters is never easy.

Thomas Detry 🇧🇪 (125/1)

Best Result: First Appearance | 2024 Result: N/A

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Make cut, low finish

It will be a Masters debut for Belgium’s Thomas Detry, who qualified via his win at the Phoenix Open earlier this year. Detry will have his eyes set on the Ryder Cup in September, and will need to perform well in the majors to have a chance of making the team. He has gone through a dip in form since his win, missing two cuts in his last five starts, and only finishing inside the top 25 once. A made cut here will be a good debut.

Matt Fitzpatrick 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (100/1)

Best Result: T7 (2016) | 2024 Result: T10

Goal: Top 20 | Prediction: Make cut, low finish

Matt Fitzpatrick is going through one of the most difficult periods of his career. He is currently 70th in the world rankings, his lowest mark in 10 years. He has not had a top ten finish since last June, and is without a win since 2023. However, he has been consistent at Augusta National, only missing the cut once back in his first appearance in 2014 as an amateur. Fitzy needs a good performance at The Masters to kickstart his season and maintain his spot in the Ryder Cup team.

Tommy Fleetwood 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (28/1)

Best Result: T3 (2024) | 2024 Result: T3

Goal: Win | Prediction: Top 20

Tommy performed well at the Masters in 2024, posting his best result in 8 appearances in T3. He has finished in the top 25 in 15 straight events since he missed the cut at The Open last July. Fleetwood is one of the best golfers in the world without a major win and could break through at any time, but it is difficult to see Augusta being the place he does it first.

Sergio Garcia 🇪🇸 (80/1)

Best Result: Winner (2017) | 2024 Result: CUT

Goal: Top 10 | Prediction: Top 40

Sergio Garcia wants to be in this year’s Ryder Cup team. He has impressed in LIV recently, winning in Hong Kong and finishing third in Miami last weekend. However, it is difficult to see Sergio making the team just based on strong LIV performances. He will need to make noise at the majors to justify his selection. Since his win in 2017, Garcia has missed the cut in 5 of the last 6 appearances at Augusta. He will need to improve on that form to get his year off to a good start.

Tyrell Hatton 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (40/1)

Best Result: T9 (2024) | 2024 Result: T9

Goal: Win | Prediction: Top 30

It has been a fantastic 12 months for Tyrrell Hatton - last year was his best performance at The Masters in eight appearances, and he has been a winner three times since then. However, he has failed to post a better finish than T19 in his last four LIV starts, which is below his usual standard. Hatton’s game is a good fit for Augusta - a great iron player with a solid short game. However, the question is whether his mental game can withstand the pressure of a Masters Sunday.

Nicolai Højgaard 🇩🇰 (150/1)

Best Result: T16 (2024) | 2024 Result: T16

Goal: Top 20 | Prediction: Miss Cut

For a brief time on Saturday at the 2024 Masters, Nicolai Højgaard had the solo lead, buoyed by three straight birdies from holes 8 to 10. However, his challenge fell short with five straight bogeys in the back nine, and he finished the tournament in T16. He would have learned a lot from that debut performance, and will be looking to replicate the magic this year. However, three straight missed cuts on the PGA Tour suggest his game is not in good shape.

Rasmus Højgaard 🇩🇰 (175/1)

Best Result: First Appearance | 2024 Result: N/A

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Make cut, low finish

Rasmus will be making his first appearance at the Masters alongside his twin brother, who will hopefully give him some tips to navigate the course. After a promising start to his rookie season on the PGA Tour, he has failed to post a top 25 finish in his last 5 starts, with three cuts during that time. His main issue during that time has been his approach game, which is hugely important at Augusta.

Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴 (33/1)

Best Result: T7 (2023) | 2024 Result: Cut

Goal: Top 20 | Prediction: Miss Cut

A Murder on the Orient Express, Jack the Ripper’s true identity, and Amelia Earhart’s disappearance are some of the greatest mysteries of our time. I think it is safe to add Viktor Hovland’s win at the 2025 Valspar Championship to that list. Coming in off three straight missed cuts with a clear lack of confidence, he still managed to win his seventh PGA Tour title. Viktor clearly has the talent to be a multiple major winner, but his biggest weakness is exposed at Augusta: short game. He will need a great week with his approach play and putting to make a challenge.

Stephan Jaeger 🇩🇪 (200/1)

Best Result: Cut (2024) | 2024 Result: Cut

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Make cut, low finish

Stephan Jaeger got his maiden win on the PGA Tour just over a year ago at the Houston Open, where he went toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler to win by one. Two weeks after that Scheffler won the Masters, while Jaeger shot rounds of 74 and 80 to miss the cut. Jaeger has had a solid start to 2024 as he sits 43rd in the FedEx Cup rankings, and I expect him to improve on his 2024 finish this year.

Bernhard Langer 🇩🇪 (1000/1)

Best Result: Win (1985, 1993) | 2024 Result: DNP

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Miss Cut

A true legend of the game will make his final appearance at Augusta in 2025. After tearing his Achilles tendon at the start of 2024, Bernhard Langer made a remarkable comeback, extending his record with a Champions Tour win in November—his 18th consecutive season with a victory. A giant of European golf, Langer will forever be celebrated for his two Masters titles, earned during an era of European dominance at Augusta. His farewell will mark the end of an extraordinary chapter in Masters history.

Shane Lowry 🇮🇪 (33/1)

Best Result: T3 (2022) | 2024 Result: T43

Goal: Win | Prediction: Top 10

Simply put, Shane Lowry all of the skills needed to win the Masters. His iron play is elite, he has an incredible short game, and when his putter gets hot there are not many in world golf that can compete with him. While Lowry’s performances over the last 12 months have been extremely consistent, he has not managed to get over the line for a solo win (he won the Zurich Classic alongside Rory McIlroy). Since last July, he has been the 36-hole leader at The Open, the 36-hole leader at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the 54-hole co-leader at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. If he keeps putting himself in these positions he will eventually win, but he is without a solo win in the US since he won the WGC Bridgestone Invitational back in 2015.

Robert MacIntyre 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 (45/1)

Best Result: T12 (2021) | 2024 Result: DNP

Goal: Top 20 | Prediction: Top 20

Bob MacIntyre made his breakthrough in 2023 with victories at both the Canadian Open and the Scottish Open, firmly establishing himself among Europe’s elite. He has two prior Masters appearances under his belt, finishing T12 in 2021 and T22 in 2022—impressive showings for a relative newcomer. His best major finish to date remains a T6 at his Open Championship debut in 2019, and if he can better that at Augusta, it would mark another significant milestone in his rising career.

Rory McIlroy 🇪🇺 (13/2)

Best Result: 2 (2022) | 2024 Result: T22

Goal: Win | Prediction: Win (please)

Rory McIlroy—the time is now. With three wins in his last seven starts and no finishes outside the top 25 since last August, he’s in peak form heading into Augusta. The Masters has a history of rewarding greatness, and McIlroy is unquestionably one of the most gifted players the game has ever seen. Only five men have completed the career Grand Slam—Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, and Gene Sarazen. This week, Rory has the chance to join that legendary group.

José Maria Olazabal 🇪🇸 (2000/1)

Best Result: Winner (1994 & 1999) | 2024 Result: T45

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Miss Cut

Olazabal turned back the clock last year to make the cut on the 30th and 25th anniversaries of his two victories at the Masters. It was an incredible achievement, particularly considering his driving distance was 33.8 yards below the field average. He has not finished above T39 on the Champions Tour since then, so a repeat of that feat is unlikely.

Matthieu Pavon 🇫🇷 (400/1)

Best Result: T12 (2024) | 2024 Result: T12

Goal: Top 20 | Prediction: Miss Cut

Pavon made an impressive Masters debut in 2024, finishing in T12. He followed that performance up with a top 5 finish at the US Open at Pinehurst. However, he has only managed three top 20 results in the 21 starts since that, and his short game will need to improve dramatically if he is to make a charge here. Pavon has been above average in strokes gained around the green in just 6 of his last 25 starts, losing almost a stroke per round over his last four events.

Jon Rahm 🇪🇸 (14/1)

Best Result: Winner (2023) | 2024 Result: T45

Goal: Win | Prediction: Top 10

Jon Rahm had a rough year at the majors in 2024 by his standards, with only one finish in the top 40 at The Open. He has picked up a couple of LIV Golf wins and the season long individual title since then, but he will want to solidify his seat at the top table of world golf this week. He needs to prove that his move to LIV Golf was a good decision for his golf career, not just his financial health. This is a great week to do that!

Aaron Rai 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (110/1)

Best Result: First Appearance | 2024 Result: N/A

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Make Cut

Aaron Rai will be making his Masters debut this year after winning his first PGA Tour title last August. The Englishman has impressed since then, and has an outside chance at making this year’s Ryder Cup team. He will likely need another win to break in, but a string of good performances in the majors could get him enough points to qualify automatically. His approach game should give him a good chance of making the cut on his debut.

Justin Rose 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (90/1)

Best Result: 2 (2017 & 2015) | 2024 Result: Cut

Goal: Top 20 | Prediction: Top 40

Justin Rose will make his 20th Masters appearance in 2025—a remarkable testament to his longevity in a sport which introduces new young talent every year. He’s been a model of consistency at Augusta, finishing inside the top 25 in 12 of his last 15 starts. With two top-10 finishes already in this season’s PGA Tour signature events, Rose is showing he can still compete at a high level. While a win may be a long shot, another strong showing and a top-25 finish would further cement his enduring presence at the game’s highest level.

Sepp Straka 🇦🇹 (66/1)

Best Result: T16 (2024) | 2024 Result: T16

Goal: Top 10 | Prediction: Top 10

Sepp Straka is quietly emerging as one of the PGA Tour’s most consistent performers. Currently sitting second in the FedEx Cup standings, the Austrian kicked off 2025 with a win at The American Express and has been steady ever since. His iron play has been a standout—ranking 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach this season—a crucial asset for success at Augusta. Straka’s best Masters finish to date is a T16 last year, and if he can build on that, it would mark another step forward in his rapidly rising career.

Danny Willett 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (500/1)

Best Result: Winner (2016) | 2024 Result: T45

Goal: Top 20 | Prediction: Miss Cut

Since his Masters triumph in 2016, Danny Willett has made 27 major starts but recorded just one top-10 finish—a reflection of the injury struggles that have hampered his ability to recapture the form that once earned him a green jacket. He opened the 2024 Masters in style with a promising 68, but faded over the weekend with rounds of 75, 76, and 78. At this stage in his career, making the cut at Augusta would be a good result.

Masters Preview: My Picks for the Championship

Well, you made it. Now it is time for us to make four picks for The Masters. This is a tournament for the top tier of golfers, with no winners outside the top 30 in the world rankings (or datagolf rankings post-LIV) since 2007. Since 1986, just 7 of the 38 winners have had odds of 50/1 or greater before the tournament began. If you want to choose some long shots to finish in the top 20 or make the cut, I entirely endorse it. However, when it comes to the winner, look toward the top of the odds list.

Favorite Pick: Rory McIlroy (13/2)

I’m not sure if this pick comes from my head or my heart, but it feels like now or never for Rory, and I want to be on the bandwagon when it finally happens. There's no question he's the most in-form golfer in the world right now. Xander is still finding his rhythm after injury, and Scottie, despite strong play, hasn’t managed to close out a win this year. Everything seems to be lining up. Please, golf gods. Let this be the one.

Mid-Range Pick: Collin Morikawa (16/1)

Collin Morikawa has been the best iron player not named Scottie Scheffler over the past five years. He is currently ranked 1st in strokes gained: approach in the PGA Tour, and his major results last season were as follows: T3 (Masters), T4 (PGA), T14 (US Open), and T16 (The Open). There is a third major somewhere in the future for Collin, and he will have learned from his close call at the Masters last year when he was in the final group on Sunday, but struggled to a final round 74. He will be in the mix, the question is whether he can get over the line.

Long-ish Shot Pick: Shane Lowry (33/1)

Shane Lowry has all the tools to contend at Augusta. Over the past six months, he ranks 3rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 27th around the greens—two key metrics for success at The Masters. If the putter gets hot, as it did during his stunning 62 at last year’s PGA Championship, he’ll be right in the mix. Should he string together four steady rounds, the King of Portrush could be heading home to Clara with a green jacket to add to his wardrobe.

Quick Hits:

• Brian Harman won the Valero Texas Open for his first victory since his lone major title at The Open in 2023

• Marc Leishman won LIV Miami for his first professional title since 2021

Coming up this week on Tour:

• The Masters - did you hear?

If you have any feedback for the newsletter or would like to get in touch, I would love to hear from you! Email [email protected] or message us on Twitter/X at @BlueHorizonGolf. Thank you for reading!