Breakfast Ball #70: PGA Championship Preview

The second major of 2025 is here! Be sure to check out last week’s edition of the newsletter for a course profile of the host of the PGA Championship, Quail Hollow.

In This Week’s Newsletter:

PGA Championship Preview: Are we set for a Rory vs. Scottie showdown?

This week, the golfing world turns its attention to Charlotte, North Carolina, for the 107th edition of the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club. It marks the tournament’s second visit to the venue, where Justin Thomas captured his first major title back in 2017.

What Defines the PGA Championship?

Every major has its own distinct identity. The Open delivers unpredictable weather and the challenge of links golf. The U.S. Open is a relentless grind, with winning scores often barely under par. The Masters is, well, The Masters.

The PGA Championship, by contrast, is defined by the depth of its field. It features 156 players, typically including all of the world’s top 100, making it the most competitive lineup in golf. Its venues rotate between modern layouts like Quail Hollow and Kiawah Island, and classic tests such as Oak Hill and Southern Hills.

One thing remains consistent: to win the PGA Championship, you need a world-class tee-to-green game. Five of the last seven champions ranked in the top two for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green during their victory week. The two who didn’t relied on exceptional putting performances (1st and 2nd in SG: Putting) to make up the difference. In short, if your ball striking isn’t sharp, you’d better have a hot putter—because this major doesn’t hand out trophies to average ball strikers. That is what it takes to beat the best field in golf.

What Are the Main Storylines This Week?

You don’t have to look far for the main event: Grand Slam champion Rory McIlroy versus the resurgent world number one, Scottie Scheffler. But there’s a key difference between the two. Despite Quail Hollow being a regular stop on the PGA Tour, this will be Scheffler’s first appearance at the course in an individual event. He represented the US in the President’s Cup at Quail Hollow in 2022. McIlroy, on the other hand, knows it intimately. He’s teed it up here 13 times, with four wins to his name, including last year’s edition. Jordan Spieth described Quail Hollow as “Rory McIlroy Country Club” last week.

Speaking of Mr. Spieth, this will be his ninth attempt at completing the career Grand Slam. It has been a tumultuous few years for the three-time major champion, whose last win came at the RBC Heritage in 2022. He has had a return to form recently, finishing in the top 20 at four of his last 5 starts. However, his best finish in four appearances at Quail Hollow is a tie for 28th.

How will the LIV faithful play this week? Bryson DeChambeau responded well to a difficult Sunday at The Masters, winning the last LIV event in Korea. Jon Rahm is still trying to prove if he can compete with the best in the world since his controversial switch to LIV; he has yet to challenge at a major in the four starts he has made since 2023. The tour will have plenty of representation as a number of players were given special invitations into the tournament including Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, and European youngsters Tom McKibbin and David Puig.

Which European has the best chance at picking up their first major? Sepp Straka is in fantastic form and finished in T8 at Quail Hollow last year. Ludvig Åberg has all the tools needed to win, but has hit a slump in form since his win at The Genesis Invitational earlier this year. Tyrrell Hatton is arguably playing the best golf of his career, and was T3 the last time he competed at Quail Hollow. Tommy Fleetwood has finished outside the top 25 once in his last 19 starts, but has not found a way to get over the line. All four of these players could easily challenge for the title this week.

If anyone is going to ruin the Rory vs. Scottie showdown, it is Justin Thomas. The two-time PGA Championship winner is returning to the site of his first major title in some of the best form of his career. Fresh off a win at the RBC Heritage, JT finished in a tie for second at the Truist Championship this weekend. He is available at 22/1, and may just be the best pick available this weekend.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, can Quail Hollow deliver a major championship that captures attention and builds on what has already been a thrilling start to the 2025 golf season? The Masters provided Sky Sports’ most-watched day of all time, with 37% of all TV viewers tuned in to watch McIlroy claim the green jacket. PGA Tour ratings have been on the rise across the board. While the rise of LIV has undeniably fractured the sport, there’s real momentum behind the professional game right now, and this major has a golden opportunity to keep that surge going.

Who Are my Picks to Win?

The PGA Championship is one of the toughest majors to predict—it's produced a number of first-time major winners in recent history, with 9 of the last 15 champions claiming their first major title at this event.

The Main Event: Scheffler vs. McIlroy

Despite this history, it’s hard to look past the favorites this year. Quail Hollow is a familiar venue, and the added length for the PGA Championship is likely to favor elite ball strikers like Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. From a betting standpoint, there’s limited value in backing either—both enter as 5/1 co-favorites in a stacked 156-player field.

That said, neither comes in without questions. Scheffler has never played Quail Hollow in normal tournament settings, meaning he’ll be at a course knowledge disadvantage compared to much of the field. McIlroy, meanwhile, carries the weight of enormous expectations. While he may have a lighter load compared to The Masters, expectations for a victory will be extremely high, especially given his dominant history at this venue.

While I picked Rory to win The Masters, I think Scottie is the better pick this week, despite his lack of experience at the course. He is back to his best, and does not necessarily need an exceptional week of putting to prevail. Rory played well at the Truist over the weekend, but also made some silly errors that could be punished at a major championship venue.

Value Picks: Which player could win their first major?

While there are certainly players at the top of the betting odds list that have a great chance to win (DeChambeau, Morikawa, and particularly Justin Thomas stand out to me), what if we dive into the trend of first-time major winners prevailing at the PGA? Here are two players that I think could challenge this week:

Corey Conners (66/1)

Corey Conners hasn’t missed a cut at a major since the 2023 US Open, finishing inside the top 26 in each of the last four. Over the past six months, he ranks 12th in the world in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, even though he averages just under 300 yards off the tee. While that lack of distance could be a slight disadvantage this week, he more than makes up for it with his iron play, ranking among the top five players globally on approach shots from 150–200 yards.

Conners has also played well at Quail Hollow, finishing T13 and T8 in his last two starts at the course. At 2/1, he's a strong top-20 bet, and at 66/1 for the win, he offers excellent value given his profile.

Sepp Straka (66/1)

The 5th best player from tee-to-green on the PGA Tour in 2025. A two-time winner on Tour this season. A T8 finish at Quail Hollow last year. 66/1 is good value for the big Austrian, who played his college golf a three-hour drive away from Quail Hollow at the University of Georgia.

I promise I wrote this section before his win at the Truist Championship… His odds dropped from 90/1 yesterday morning to 66/1 after his victory. I did lock in a small wager on him (above) at the prior odds. Two wins in a row is very difficult, but the value still stands.

(all odds were accurate at the time of writing)

Sepp Straka Outlasts Shane Lowry to Win the Truist Championship

Sepp Straka claimed his fourth PGA Tour title and his first signature event with a two stroke victory at the Truist Championship. It marks his second win of the season, following his triumph at The American Express, making him just the second player alongside Rory McIlroy to notch multiple wins in 2025.

Straka was paired with his Ryder Cup teammate Shane Lowry in the final group on Sunday, with the two starting the day tied for the lead. It marked the second time this year they found themselves in that exact position, having previously shared the final group at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where they were forced to watch Rory McIlroy surge past them to take the title.

For most of Sunday, Lowry was the steadier of the two, carding three birdies and just one bogey through 15 holes. Straka made an early statement with an eagle on the par-5 fifth and appeared to take control with back-to-back birdies on 8 and 9. However, he gave those strokes back with bogeys on 10 and 11, bringing the duo back level as they stood on the 16th tee.

The final three holes at Philly Cricket were punishing all week, and Shane Lowry was their final victim. A pulled tee shot on the 222-yard 16th led to a missed six-foot par putt, dropping him one behind. After trading pars on 17, the pressure shifted to the 18th. Straka found a fairway bunker off the tee, briefly opening the door, but Lowry couldn’t capitalize as his drive careened into the spectators. Straka then delivered a brilliant 207-yard approach from the sand that nearly holed out, leaving a very manageable two putt for par. Lowry’s long birdie attempt to force a playoff missed, ending the contest.

It was a frustrating finish for Lowry, who continues to chase his first individual victory since winning The Open in 2019. Straka, meanwhile, has firmly cemented himself as one of Luke Donald’s key assets for the Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black later this year—and with his current form, he’ll be a serious contender for a major title before then.

Other Results & News 📰

• 🇫🇷 France may have a young star on their hands… 22-year-old Martin Couvra won his first DP World Tour title in just his 15th start on tour at the Turkish Airlines Open

  • A final round 64 that included 9 birdies gave Couvra the win by two strokes

• 😄 2016 Ryder Cup team member Chris Wood finished in the top 10 of a DP World Tour event for the first time since 2018 after a final round 64

  • Wood won three times on tour between 2013 and 2016, but has battled chronic anxiety and burnout, leading to a dramatic drop in form

  • “It's been horrendous to be honest,” he said. “It's been – since 2019 really – I just feel like I've been going through hell so to put a score together today is obviously great.”

• 🦘 Rory McIlroy has reportedly committed to play in the Australian Open at Royal Melbourne this year

  • Australia is a severely underserved market from a pro golf perspective, particularly given the number of incredible golfers and golf courses that the country has produced

• Shot of the Week: Sepp Straka’s approach on the 72nd hole at the Truist. A one stroke lead on the final hole of what could be the biggest win of your career. A 4-iron from 207 yards out in a fairway bunker, and he almost holed it. What a golf shot.

Coming up this week on Tour

• 😃 The PGA Championship at Quail Hollow!

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