Breakfast Ball #74: Oakmont is Ready to Rumble

Earlier this year I did a course profile of Oakmont Country Club, the host of this year’s U.S. Open. While it is not required reading to understand today’s preview, it should give you all the background you need to understand the history and character of this iconic track.

In This Week’s Newsletter:

US Open Preview: Who will survive Oakmont’s brutal examination?

Henry Fownes built Oakmont with one goal in mind: create the toughest test in golf. At 6,400 yards, it was dramatically longer than most courses in 1904. More than a century later, it still holds its own, demanding precision and grit from even the best in the world.

Oakmont last hosted the US Open back in 2016, when some rain early in the week softened conditions. Despite this assistance from mother nature, only four players managed to post a score under par. Shane Lowry, after his first practice round, was stunned by the difficulty: “I sat there in the locker room saying I have no idea how I am gonna play golf around this place.”

All signs point to another brutal U.S. Open test in 2025. Videos of the rough circulating online suggest it's as punishing as ever. There is rain forecast for the first two days of the week, but it should get harder as the tournament progresses and the greens get firmer. Rory McIlroy and Adam Scott got a sneak peek of the course during a private outing last week. McIlroy opened with a triple bogey on a drive-able par 4, and Scott, despite hitting every fairway on the front nine, still shot 3-over. If you love watching the best players in the world completely struggle, this U.S. Open is for you.

Can anyone beat Scottie Scheffler?

Weeks like this demand significant patience and mental toughness. Two traits the world number one has in abundance. The course is a great fit for his game, demanding length and accuracy off the tee and precise approach shots into severely fast and undulating greens. However, the greens are perhaps the only thing that could stop Scheffler this week.

Scottie Scheffler’s putter has long been considered the weakest part of his game, but over the past 18 months, that narrative has shifted. At the start of 2024, he was losing half a stroke per round on the greens. Today, he's gaining 0.6 strokes per round - a remarkable improvement of more than a full stroke. If Scheffler putts above average this week on Oakmont's treacherous greens, he will be very hard to beat. The bookmakers agree, as Scheffler is currently 3/1 to win the tournament. They are the shortest odds for a player to win a major since Tiger Woods in his prime.

Who are the main challengers?

While Oakmont tests every element of your game, in order to succeed here you need to keep the ball out of the rough. There is a possibility that most lies will simply result in players needing to chop out with a wedge, immediately bringing in the chance of big scores if you miss the fairway. You simply won’t be able to post a score under par if you hit less than 50% of fairways.

That is a problem for Rory McIlroy. His driving accuracy has been poor as of late, sitting at 170th in the PGA Tour. He hit just 14/28 fairways at the Canadian Open as he switched to a new driver in search of a solution: “Going to Oakmont next week, what you need to do more than anything else there is hit fairways. Still sort of searching for the sort of missing piece off the tee. That’s a concern going into next week.” I don’t foresee Rory challenging if these issues persist.

Bryson DeChambeau has a legitimate shot at becoming the U.S. Open’s first back-to-back winner since Brooks Koepka in 2018. Off the tee, he’s been historically dominant, gaining 1.86 strokes per round over the last six months, nearly a full shot better than McIlroy, who ranks second. But while his driver continues to set him up for success, his iron play has been inconsistent. This season, he’s losing strokes on approach for the first time since 2022. Still, despite not having his best all-around game, DeChambeau has finished inside the top five at both majors this year. If the approach play clicks, he’ll be in contention on Sunday.

Jon Rahm returned to the heat of major championship contention at the PGA Championship, but signs of rust emerged as his challenge faded on the back nine at Quail Hollow. Still, that experience should serve him well heading into this week. His driving accuracy is the best it’s been since 2020, and his lone U.S. Open win came at Torrey Pines - a course that, like Oakmont, demands precision and patience. If he can maintain his focus across all 72 holes, Rahm is well-positioned to push Scottie Scheffler once again.

Collin Morikawa should have the skillset off the tee to put himself in contention, but has not posted a top 5 finish since the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March. Ludvig Åberg appears to have steadied the ship with two top 20 finishes in his last two starts after a rough couple of months, and should not be ruled out of contention here. Xander Schauffele is still suffering from a post-injury slump, and he has been above average in driving accuracy in just one of his last 11 starts. Joaquin Niemann is coming off his fourth LIV title of the season and posted a top 10 finish at the PGA, his first in 24 major starts. I need to see more from the Chilean in major tournaments before considering him as a true contender.

My Picks for the U.S. Open

I think Scottie Scheffler will win this tournament. Players will struggle mentally with this course more than anything, and Scottie has displayed the ability to stay the course when the going gets tough.

However, I tried to make some other picks that could make things a little more interesting if Scheffler runs away with it on Sunday.

🇪🇺 Shane Lowry Top European: 12/1

Lowry has been in fantastic form in recent weeks, despite a poor performance at the PGA Championship. He is accurate off the tee, and was four shots clear of Dustin Johnson in the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont after three rounds. A Sunday 76 ruled him out of contention then, but I think he is good value to be the top European this week at 12/1.

🎯 Aaron Rai Top 10: 13/2

When accuracy off the tee is at a premium, there's no better pick for a top-10 finish than the most accurate driver in the world. Aaron Rai has missed the cut in his last two starts, but a return to form feels imminent. He’ll give up distance to much of the field, but if he continues to find fairways with consistency, a score in the +2 to +6 range is well within reach, and that could be enough to contend.

😎 Ben Griffin Win: 70/1

Ben Griffin is playing the best golf of his career. A runner-up finish at the Memorial and a win at the Charles Schwab Challenge have firmly placed him in the U.S. Ryder Cup conversation. After missing the cut in his first three major appearances, he broke through with a top-10 at the PGA Championship earlier this year. With solid form, improving confidence, and above-average driving accuracy, Griffin offers strong value at 70/1 for a player whose profile fits the bill of a major contender.

Enjoy! It is going to be a fun week.

Other News & Results on Tour:

• 🥝 Ryan Fox won his second PGA Tour title with a birdie on the fourth playoff hole against Sam Burns

  • Fox produced my shot of the week to set up the birdie opportunity with an incredible 3-wood from 259 yards - he described it as “the best shot I’ve ever hit”

  • Italy’s Matteo Manassero led the tournament alongside Fox going into the final round, but finished three shots behind the leader in T6

  • Shane Lowry led the tournament early on Sunday, playing the first four holes in five under. However, he could not maintain the momentum and ended in T13

• 🔥 Joaquin Niemann had four birdies in the last five holes to win LIV Virginia, one shot ahead of Graeme McDowell

  • Niemann has now won four times on LIV this season, but interestingly has not posted any other top tens outside of his wins

  • McDowell’s result was only his second top five in his three years on LIV, and his first since February 2024

• 🇳🇱 Scotland’s Conor Syme won the KLM Open by two strokes on the DP World Tour

  • Syme had missed the cut in four of his last five events, but rounds of 65, 72, 66, and 70 were enough to win his first DPWT title

Coming up this week on Tour

• The US Open takes place at Oakmont Country Club! 🇺🇸 

If you have any feedback for the newsletter or would like to get in touch, I would love to hear from you! Email [email protected] or message us on Twitter/X at @BlueHorizonGolf. Thank you for reading!