Breakfast Ball #77: Who is on Luke's Plane to Bethpage?

We are halfway through 2025! Time to do a review of the first 6 months of the year, focusing on the players in the running for the European Ryder Cup team.

In This Week’s Newsletter:

European Ryder Cup Update: Which players are on the plane to Bethpage? How did they get here?

We are less than three months away from the Ryder Cup. The final major of the year is kicking off in 17 days. There is still plenty of golf to play before the teams are finalized in late August, but right now it feels like Luke Donald’s team is taking shape. To get things started, let’s take a look at the qualification standings.

The top six players will automatically qualify for the team, while the last six will be captain’s picks. The only player who is 100% qualified for the team is Rory McIlroy, who mathematically cannot be caught and has guaranteed himself of an automatic berth.

So who is likely on the plane to Bethpage and how have they played so far this year?

Officially in the Team

Rory McIlroy: A+

Starts: 13 | Top 20s: 11 | Top 5s: 5 | Wins: 3

It’s been a remarkable year for Europe’s top player. Rory McIlroy finally ended his major drought, capturing the one title he needed to cement his legacy among the all-time greats. While his form has dipped slightly since that career-defining win, a solid top-20 finish at a grueling U.S. Open and a T6 at last week’s Travelers Championship suggest he’s rounding back into form - just in time for an Open Championship on home soil.

Definite Inclusions

Jon Rahm: B

Starts: 12 | Top 20s: 11 | Top 5s: 3 | Wins: 0

Jon Rahm’s streak of consecutive top-10 finishes in LIV events came to an end with a T11 result in Dallas. Still, 2025 has marked a return to form in the majors for the Spaniard. He was firmly in contention at the PGA Championship until the final stretch, and added strong finishes at both the Masters (T14) and U.S. Open (T7). Rahm remains one of the game’s elite players - and it feels like only a matter of time before he adds another major title to his résumé.

Tommy Fleetwood: B

Starts: 15 | Top 20s: 9 | Top 5s: 4 | Wins: 0

While Tommy Fleetwood has not gotten the elusive win he so desperately wants, he is still one of Europe’s best golfers and plays at an extremely consistent level. He now has 42 PGA Tour top-10s, a record for the most top-10s without a win since 1983. He has to do it soon, right?

Tyrrell Hatton: B+

Starts: 12 | Top 20s: 9 | Top 5s: 3 | Wins: 1

Tyrrell Hatton opened the year with a win at the Dubai Desert Classic and recently made his first serious run at a major, contending deep into Sunday at the U.S. Open. Just yesterday, he recorded his best LIV Golf finish of the season, finishing one stroke shy of a four-man playoff. As the year progresses, Hatton is clearly trending in the right direction - and come Bethpage, he’ll likely reunite with his LIV teammate Jon Rahm in a familiar Ryder Cup pairing.

Sepp Straka: A-

Starts: 18 | Top 20s: 11 | Top 5s: 4 | Wins: 2

It may be surprising that Sepp Straka isn’t walking out of school with an A+ on his report card. The Austrian has picked up two wins this season, including the biggest win of his career at the Truist Championship, a PGA Tour signature event. However, Straka has missed the cut at all three majors so far this year. The best golfers in the world perform on the biggest stages, and Straka needs to do that to elevate to the next level. However, he is still clearly one of the 12 best European players in the world and will be on the team in September.

Shane Lowry: B-

Starts: 16 | Top 20s: 9 | Top 5s: 2 | Wins: 0

It has been a weird year for Shane Lowry. After finishing second at Pebble Beach to Rory McIlroy, he came extremely close to winning the Truist Championship, but Straka was more consistent down the stretch. Since that tournament, he has missed the cut at the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship, and finished 15 shots off the pace at the Travelers last week. The perfect tonic to get out of a slump? A return to Royal Portrush, the site of his historic major win 2019.

Ludvig Åberg: B

Starts: 15 | Top 20s: 5 | Top 5s: 2 | Wins: 1

Ludvig Åberg remains one of Europe’s most exciting young talents and already has a PGA Tour victory under his belt this season. After a breakout campaign in 2024, expectations were high for the Swede heading into this year. A win at The Genesis Invitational in February seemed to signal another leap forward, but his form since then has been inconsistent, with just one top-10 finish in his last eleven starts. The main culprit has been his iron play, which has struggled to find its usual sharpness. Encouragingly, there have been signs of improvement in recent weeks, and if that trend continues, Åberg could be primed for a strong summer run.

Viktor Hovland: A-

Starts: 14 | Top 20s: 3 | Top 5s: 2 | Wins: 1

Viktor Hovland has enjoyed a much-needed resurgence in 2025. After a rough start to the season that included four missed cuts in five starts, he bounced back with a victory at the Valspar Championship and followed it up with a stellar showing at the U.S. Open, narrowly missing out on his first major title. Since the Valspar, he hasn’t missed a cut, signaling a return to the consistent form that made him one of Europe’s most dependable players. He did withdraw from the Travelers Championship last week due to a neck injury, but assuming he's fully recovered, his place on the team is all but assured.

Probably in the Squad

Justin Rose: B+

Starts: 13 | Top 20s: 3 | Top 5s: 2 | Wins: 0

One storyline somewhat overshadowed by the McIlroy hysteria at The Masters was Justin Rose’s remarkable performance. He pushed McIlroy to a second playoff hole, displaying exceptional composure amid a chaotic final round at Augusta. Rose also played a key leadership role at the 2023 Ryder Cup, guiding debutant Bob MacIntyre to 1.5 points from two matches. While his recent form—highlighted only by a T42 at the Heritage—raises some questions, his experience and past performances should be enough to earn him a seat on the plane.

Bob MacIntyre: B-

Starts: 19 | Top 20s: 10 | Top 5s: 1 | Wins: 0

Bob MacIntyre was quietly piecing together a solid 2025 campaign, with four top-10s and eight top-20 finishes in his first 16 starts. He had also been quietly working his way through the U.S. Open field—until Sunday afternoon, when he surged into contention with a brilliant stretch of birdies in brutal conditions. MacIntyre went on to earn the best major finish of his career with a solo second, a result that likely secured his place on the 2025 Ryder Cup team.

Next Week

We have 10 places on the team accounted for! The last two places are still up for grabs, with many names in the hat. Next week, I will make my prediction for the last two spots and review others that are in the mix.

Results on Tour:

• 🇿🇦 20-year-old Aldrich Potgieter won the Rocket Classic after a FIVE hole playoff against Max Greyserman and Chris Kirk

  • Potgieter became the third youngest player in the last 50 years to win a PGA Tour event via a playoff after Jordan Spieth and Tiger Woods

  • Matt Fitzpatrick was the best of the Europeans in T8, while Harry Hall and Sami Valimaki also finished in the top 20

• 🇫🇷 Adrien Saddier got his first ever DP World Tour title after beating out fellow Frenchman Martin Couvra by two strokes at the Italian Open

  • Both Saddier and Couvra earned spots at The Open with this result - they will both be making their major championship debuts

• 🇺🇸 Patrick Reed won LIV Dallas in a four man playoff against Paul Casey, Louis Oosthuizen, and Jinichiro Kozuma

  • Tom McKibbin and Tyrell Hatton were one stroke behind the leading quartet in T5

• 🇮🇪 Padraig Harrington won the Senior U.S. Open for the second time

  • Harrington played with Stewart Cink all four days at The Broadmoor in Colorado, and after 72 holes only one stroke separated them

• 🇪🇸 Sergio Garcia won an exemption into The Open thanks to his play on LIV Golf

  • Garcia is the highest ranked player not already exempt for The Open, and therefore avoided final qualifying this week

Coming up this week on Tour

• The PGA Tour moves onto the John Deere Classic in Illinois

• The BMW International Open takes place in Munich on the DP World Tour

  • This tournament has a strong field with European names such as Luke Donald, Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer, David Puig, Stephan Jaeger, and American Patrick Reed

• The final stage of Open Qualifying takes place across four sites in Great Britain on Tuesday, with players battling over 36 holes to earn a spot in the year’s final major

  • Former Ryder Cup players Alex Noren, Chris Wood, Graeme McDowell, Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter, and Jamie Donaldson will all be vying for one of the places on offer

If you have any feedback for the newsletter or would like to get in touch, I would love to hear from you! Email [email protected] or message us on Twitter/X at @BlueHorizonGolf. Thank you for reading!