Breakfast Ball #79: 2025 Open Championship Preview

Welcome to the final major of 2025! If you want to learn more about the course, see my profile of Royal Portrush from earlier this year here.

In This Week’s Newsletter:

Open Championship Preview: Who has what it takes to conquer Royal Portrush?

The Open Championship is golf at its most pure. Last year at Royal Troon saw four days of completely different conditions, meaning players had to essentially play a new course every single day. While we may not get that weather in 2025, Royal Portrush should provide a stern test for the world’s best golfers.

Four European Debutants to Watch 🇪🇺 

🇫🇷 Martin Couvra

Martin Couvra is quickly emerging as one of Europe’s brightest young talents. The 22-year-old turned professional midway through 2023 and wasted no time making an impact, picking up a win on the Challenge Tour in his debut season. Consistent performance in 2024 earned him promotion to the DP World Tour for 2025, where he has continued to impress.

In his first 20 starts at the top level, Couvra has already recorded nine top-20 finishes and five top-5s, a remarkably consistent return for a rookie. The standout moment of his season so far came at the Turkish Airlines Open, where a blistering final-round 64 propelled him to his first DP World Tour victory. He is in prime position to finish the DP World Tour season in the top 10 spots and secure a card for the PGA Tour in 2026. He is making his major debut at Royal Portrush, and it will probably be the first of many major appearances for the Frenchman.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Harry Hall

This time last year Harry Hall was playing at the ISCO Championship, an event on the PGA Tour for players who are not ranked highly enough to compete in the Scottish Open. He picked up his first ever PGA Tour title in a five man playoff, and has not looked back since. The 27-year-old has finished in the top 25 in each of his last 7 starts, including a T19 at the PGA Championship, just his second ever major start.

He is clearly in Luke Donald’s sights for Bethpage as they were paired together for the first two days of the Scottish Open. A big performance at Royal Portrush could really put him in the mix for a captain’s pick.

🇨🇿 Filip Jakubcik (a)

The Czech Republic is not known for producing many golfing stars, but Filip Jakubcik has the opportunity to forge a new path. Jakubcik won the European Amateur Championship a few weeks back, solidifying himself as one of the top amateurs in the world. A three-stroke victory at Vasatorps Golfklubb in Sweden was the first win for a Czech-born player at the championship. He is going into the final year of his collegiate career at the University of Arizona with high hopes of being the second ever Czech player to play on the PGA Tour.

🇪🇪 Richard Teder (a)

Another amateur making history this year is Richard Teder, who will become the first Estonian ever to compete in The Open Championship. Teder earned his place in dramatic fashion, holing out for eagle on the third playoff hole during final qualifying to seal his spot in the field.

Estonia’s golf history is still in its infancy - the country opened its first course in 1993 and today has just nine courses nationwide. At only 21 years old, Teder is already breaking new ground for his country, and this Open appearance could be just the beginning of a historic career for both him and Estonian golf.

The Main Storylines this Week 📰 

There’s really only one place to start: can Rory McIlroy win an Open Championship on home soil? Few players in the field have a deeper connection to Royal Portrush. As a 16-year-old, McIlroy famously broke the course record by three strokes during the North of Ireland Championship - a moment that first signaled his immense potential.

But his last Open appearance at Portrush in 2019 ended in heartbreak. A disastrous opening quadruple bogey set the tone, and despite a valiant Friday fightback, he ultimately missed the cut. Fresh off a strong showing at the Scottish Open, McIlroy arrives well positioned to redeem himself and add a sixth major title to his career.

Scottie Scheffler hasn’t finished outside the top 25 since last August, and he enters Portrush riding a streak of ten straight top-10 finishes, including wins at the PGA Championship, the Memorial, and the Byron Nelson. This will be his fifth Open start, and he’s yet to finish worse than 25th. However, his performances on links courses have followed a familiar pattern: elite ball-striking offset by struggles on the greens. He lost strokes putting in his last three Open appearances and ranked 64th in putting at the Scottish Open last week, despite leading the field tee-to-green. If he can turn things around with the putter, Scheffler will be hard to beat at Portrush.

Shane Lowry returns to the site of his greatest triumph in mixed form. He currently sits a respectable 16th in the FedEx Cup standings, but 2025 has been defined by near misses. Lowry has twice finished runner-up in events that could have transformed his season had they gone his way. He also missed the cut at both the U.S. Open and PGA Championship, adding to his frustration. A return to Royal Portrush, however, could be exactly what he needs to reignite his season.

The Open Championship has not been kind to Bryson DeChambeau over the years. In seven starts he has just one top-30 finish, and has missed the cut in three of those appearances. Bryson’s formulaic approach to the game is not very well suited to links golf where each shot requires creativity, particularly around the greens. He hasn’t missed back-to-back cuts at majors since 2017, but after falling short at the U.S. Open, that streak is now under serious threat.

Jon Rahm comes into the Open in great form. A final round 67 at the U.S. Open gave him his third finish in the top 15 at the first three majors this season. While he has not gotten over the line for a win on LIV, he finished in second at LIV Andalucia yesterday, and has a great history at the Open. He was T11 in his last appearance at Royal Portrush, and his game fits the course very well. A third major title for Rahm feels inevitable, and this could very well be the week it happens.

There are a number of great European players searching for their first major title at Royal Portrush. Tyrrell Hatton has been playing some of the best golf of his career recently. Tommy Fleetwood finished solo second behind Shane Lowry at Portrush in 2019. Viktor Hovland is displaying signs of a return to his best form. Ludvig Aberg has had very mixed form since his win at the Genesis Championship earlier this year. Bob MacIntyre was a couple of strokes away from winning the U.S. Open a few weeks ago.

However, we have not seen a European winner of the Open Championship since Lowry in 2019. Three Americans and Australian Cam Smith have taken the last four contests, despite their lack of experience with links golf. Can Portrush produce a more local champion?

There’s already plenty to look forward to, and that’s before we even get to the golf course itself. The Dunluce Links at Royal Portrush is a spectacular venue, and it’s sure to shine on television. The current forecast looks relatively mild by Open standards, with scattered showers and light winds expected throughout the week. One thing is certain: the crowds will be enormous, and if the leaderboard is tight, the atmosphere on Sunday will be electric.

• 📺️ Video: Every Hole at Royal Portrush by Golf Digest

My Picks for the Open Championship 🏌️ 

There are two approaches to picking winners in a golf tournament. The first is simple: select the player you believe is most likely to win, regardless of the odds. The second is to look for players who can win but are undervalued by the bookmakers - where the potential return outweighs the risk. For these picks, I lean toward the latter. Backing Scottie Scheffler at 9/2 in a field of 156 may reflect probability, but from a betting perspective, there’s little value in it.

The Open is notoriously difficult to predict. Weather conditions and the luck of the draw often play a huge role in shaping the leaderboard. Unlike other majors, there’s limited links golf in the regular season, making it harder to gauge who will adapt best to the unique challenge. Even players in top form can struggle, as links golf requires a different mindset, a different skill set, and time to adjust. With that being said…

🇪🇸 Jon Rahm: 12/1

As mentioned above, Rahm has found his form in the majors once again. He has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four Open Championships, and was T11 the last time it was in Royal Portrush. He is a great course fit with his tee to green game, paired with prowess around the green. The question is whether the putter will behave, as he has had some very up and down performances on the dance floor this season.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Justin Rose: 75/1

Justin Rose had to battle through final qualifying to earn his place at last year’s Open, and he very nearly made it count, finishing just two shots behind Xander Schauffele. His recent form has been mixed; before the Scottish Open, he had missed the cut in three of his last four starts. But a superb final-round 63 yesterday lifted him into a tie for sixth and offered a timely reminder of his class. His performance at The Masters earlier this year was equally impressive, proving that—even at this stage of his career—he still has the game to contend on golf’s biggest stages. The question now is whether he can do it again this week.

🇺🇸 Russell Henley: 65/1

Last year was Russell Henley’s first top ten at an Open in his 10th start in the tournament. He has always had a well-rounded skillset that is well-suited to the old, shorter courses in the British Isles, but had not seen the results he wanted in the event. Henley has also been in great form this season, with eight top-10s in just 14 starts including a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He is pushing to be included in the U.S. Ryder Cup team, and an Open Championship victory would seal his place in the squad.

Results on Tour:

• 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Chris Gotterup held off Rory McIlroy and Marco Penge to win the Scottish Open by two strokes

  • Gotterup went into the final round tied for the lead with McIlroy, but produced some extremely impressive golf on Sunday to beat the 5-time major champion

  • It was Gotterup’s second win on tour and earned him a spot in the Open Championship next week

  • 12 Europeans finished in the top 20 including Ludvig Aberg, Sepp Straka, Nicolai Højgaard, and Matt Fitzpatrick

• 🙂 Talor Gooch won LIV Andalucia at Valderrama by one stroke ahead of local favourite Jon Rahm

  • Tom McKibbin posted his best-ever LIV finish in T4 as part of Rahm’s Legion XIII team victory

• 📈 William Mouw came back from an eight shot deficit in the final round to win the Isco Championship, an opposite field event for those that did not qualify for the Scottish Open

Coming up this week on Tour

• The Open Championship at Royal Portrush!

If you have any feedback for the newsletter or would like to get in touch, I would love to hear from you! Email [email protected] or message me on Twitter/X at @BlueHorizonGolf. Thank you for reading!