Breakfast Ball #19: Can McIlroy Finally End the Major Drought?

McIlroy, Scheffler, and Koepka will all come into the PGA Championship having won their most recent start. Let the games begin.

In This Week’s Newsletter:

PGA Championship Preview: What should we expect from Valhalla Golf Club?

Valhalla Golf Club was opened in 1986 after businessman Dwight Gahm employed Jack Nicklaus to design and build a golf course on the outskirts of Louisville, Kentucky. Just ten years later, Valhalla hosted its first major championship with the arrival of the PGA Championship. The last major held at the venue was in 2014, when Rory McIlroy won the fourth and most recent major title of his career.

As with most PGA Championships, Valhalla presents a very tough test. At 7,609 yards, it is the third longest course on tour this season and the longest course with a par of 71. The rough is punishing and there are a number of creeks and ponds that threaten players as they navigate the course. As a result, it will benefit those that can find fairways and greens with ease. When McIlroy won here in 2014, he gained 70% of his strokes from shots outside of 100 yards, 4.1 strokes per round above average.

Favorite: New Father Scottie Scheffler

Valhalla seems to set up perfectly for Scottie Scheffler. However, Scheffler has yet to win any PGA Tour event between the months of May and October. I would be very surprised if he does not buck that trend this year, but it is also difficult to know whether he will be slightly distracted as a father for the first time. Scottie makes it very clear that golf has never been the number one priority in his life, and that is part of what makes him great. He never treats any tournament or situation too big or small.

With the way he has played so far this year, there is a pretty simple equation: Scheffler’s worst finish this year when he putts above average is T6. That is all you need to know. Scheffler is the undisputed favorite.

The Chasing Pack

Valhalla is going to separate the world’s best ball strikers from the rest. Players will rarely have approach shots less than 150 yards as they are forced to club down off the tee on many holes and the shortest par three is 190 yards. The name that immediately comes to mind as Scheffler’s closest challenger is Rory McIlroy. Fresh off a victory at the Wells Fargo Championship, McIlroy will be as confident as he has been in a long time right now. If there is a time to end the drought, the time is now.

Rory McIlroy Wins the Wells Fargo Championship in Dominant Fashion

Rory McIlroy won his 26th PGA Tour title and his second in two weeks with a win at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Golf Club. McIlroy finished five shots ahead of Xander Schauffele in second place after going into the final round behind by one.

Seven holes in, it looked like Schauffele might take over. An eagle on the par five 7th left him two ahead with eleven to play. However, McIlroy got up off the canvas and dealt a haymaker of his own. He birdied the next two holes before holing a 33ft putt for eagle on the 10th to lead by one. By the time he holed out from the bunker for eagle on the 15th, the gap was six and Schauffele had thrown in the towel.

It was a commanding display on Sunday by McIlroy, who had two eagles and five birdies in a final round 65 that was the best round of the day. He finished twelve shots ahead of the 3rd placed player Ben An, despite having a double bogey on the final hole.

“If I can step onto the first tee at Valhalla on Thursday and feel as good about my game as I did today, I think I’ll have a good chance.”

Quick Hits:

• ☘️ McIlroy was top ten in all major strokes gained categories, finishing first in strokes gained: tee to green

• 🇦🇹 Sepp Straka finished in T8 despite a disappointing final round 74

• 🇮🇪 Seamus Power had his second best finish of the season in T16

• 🇳🇴 Viktor Hovland’s up and down season continued with a T24

• 🇪🇺 Shane Lowry (+7), Matt Fitzpatrick (+8), Justin Rose (+8), and Matthieu Pavon (+17) all had weeks to forget

Who can beat Scottie Scheffler? 5 Europeans who have a chance at the PGA Championship

Scottie Scheffler is undeniably the favorite for the PGA. Valhalla is a long, demanding golf course that will likely separate the consistent ball strikers from the rest of the field. However, there are a few Europeans that will believe they have a chance to unseat the Masters champion.

☘️ Rory McIlroy (15/2)

McIlroy will return to the site of his last major championship ten years ago to contest the 2024 PGA Championship. It is truly hard to believe that it has been ten years since McIlroy has won a major. He has 17 professional wins in that time, including three Tour Championships, one Players Championship, and the last two PGA Tour events. He will be approaching this tournament with more confidence than he has had in quite a while. One quote from his post-win press conference says it all: “I feel like I’m back where I need to be.”

🇸🇪 Ludvig Åberg (18/1)

Ludvig had an epic first appearance in a major tournament at The Masters a few weeks ago. He pushed Scottie Scheffler for 65 holes before the world number one pulled away for victory. Valhalla should suit Ludvig, given the emphasis on length and accuracy off the tee. He followed up his performance at The Masters with an impressive display at the RBC Heritage, finishing in T10. Despite withdrawing from the Wells Fargo Championship with a knee issue, Ludvig is a threat this week.

🇪🇸 Jon Rahm (16/1)

Jon Rahm is one of the biggest question marks for European fans this season. While he has been very consistent on LIV Golf with seven top 10s in his first seven starts, he has yet to register a win or really challenge for a title. Rahm’s last victory came at Augusta last year when he took home his second major championship. His ball striking should elevate him into the winners discussion this week, but the lack of a competitive edge from his time on LIV could halt him here.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Tommy Fleetwood (40/1)

Where does one start with Tommy Fleetwood? He has all the skill necessary to win, but has not managed to do so on US soil as of yet. Fleetwood also performs well in the majors, with five top 10s in his last eight major starts. His T3 finish at The Masters this year was his career-best at Augusta, as he was one of only three players (Scheffler & Cam Smith) to not shoot an over par round that week. He might be a good bet for a top ten, less so for the victory.

🇦🇹 Sepp Straka (90/1)

Sepp Straka has an outside shot of producing something special at Valhalla. He has finished in the top 20 in three of his last four majors and had some solid form in the last few weeks. He followed up a T16 finish at The Masters with a top five posting at the RBC Heritage, and this past weekend he was 13th best in strokes gained off the tee on the way to a T8 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship. Straka’s biggest weakness has always been his short game, but he has posted his best year to date in strokes gained around the green, so let’s hope he can continue that form this week.

Other News & Results on Tour:

• Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen was one shot away from making it 3 wins in 4 starts as Spaniard Joel Moscatel took the Challenge de España on the the Challenge Tour 🇪🇸

  • RNP bogeyed the last while Moscatel had a birdie to flip the standings on the final hole ⛳️

• Chris Gotterup won the Myrtle Beach Classic by six shots in the PGA Tour’s opposite field event

  • 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Bob MacIntyre led after Friday, but fell away during the weekend to finish in T13

  • 🇪🇸 Jorge Campillo finished in T4

Coming up this week on Tour

• The PGA Championship will take place at Valhalla Golf Club

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