Breakfast Ball #11: The Players Produces Yet Again

The PGA Tour has had a rough start to 2024. However, when they needed it most, The Players Championship delivered. This course was built for tournament golf, and the final three holes provided the Sunday drama that the Tour desperately needed.

In This Week’s Newsletter:

Scheffler Wins The Players in an Epic Finish at TPC Sawgrass

Golf just got the kickstart it needed in 2024. Scottie Scheffler shot a bogey-free 64 on Sunday to become the first player to retain the Players Championship. Scheffler was one shot ahead of three players in second, all of whom had birdie putts to tie on the 17th and 18th holes as TPC Sawgrass produced incredible drama once again. The most memorable moment will be Wyndham Clark’s lip out on the 18th green. Clark had birdied 16 and 17 to get within a shot of Scheffler, before his ball did everything but drop in the hole on the 18th.

Matt Fitzpatrick was the best of the Europeans in fifth place, followed by Ludvig Åberg in eighth. Fitzpatrick revealed last week that he had forgotten about a weight placed in the grip of his driver almost a year ago, which was only discovered when reps from Titleist replaced his club grips. They removed it, and he was sixth in the field in strokes gained off the tee and second in driving distance this week. As you can see from the graph below, he lost approximately nine yards in driving distance during the time the weight was in the club. While it is a bizarre story, his performance this week should give him confidence that he can take into Augusta in a few weeks.

It was another strange weekend for Rory McIlroy, who finished day one tied for the lead, but was erratic off the tee for most of the week. McIlroy broke the tournament birdie record, but finished at 9-under with eleven bogeys and three double bogeys. McIlroy: “I’ve definitely straightened out the iron shots and made enough birdies, its just a matter of getting rid of the bad stuff”.

Other Results:

• Shane Lowry continued his good form, shooting a 66 on St. Patrick’s Day to finish in T19 🇮🇪 

• Sepp Straka had his best finish since January in T16 🇦🇹 

• Alex Noren notched a top 20 finish after finishing T9 last week 🇸🇪 

• Stephan Jaeger, Matthieu Pavon, Nicolai Højgaard, and Bob MacIntyre were among the Europeans who missed the cut 🇪🇺 

The Next Major Stop on the Golfing Calendar is Augusta. What Should we Expect This Year?

Now that The Players has finished, all attention turns toward the first major on the golfing calendar at Augusta National. Over the next few weeks, we will preview the tournament that will see LIV and PGA Tour golfers together for the first time in 2024. But what should we expect from Augusta this year? Who will bubble toward the top on Championship Sunday?

Augusta National is known as one of the toughest tests in golf. While it doesn’t tend to change much on a year-to-year basis, players typically need time to adjust to the course before being successful. Prior success is one of the biggest predictors of Masters champions; more so than any other course on Tour. Nine of the last ten champions finished in the top 25 before they had their victory, and seven of that group had a prior top 10 finish.

Who does that rule out this year? Wyndham Clark, last year’s US Open Champion and the winner of the 2024 Pebble Beach Pro-Am, is making his debut in Augusta this year. The same can be said for Ludvig Åberg, Nicolai Højgaard, and Matthieu Pavon. The last player to win the Masters in their first year at Augusta was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979. We can safely assume we won’t see a repeat of that feat this year.

Based on the assumption of prior success, who are some of the European names that may be in with a shout this year?

• Jon Rahm (11/1): Last year’s champion will be coming to Augusta with high expectations

• Matt Fitzpatrick (55/1): Finished T10 and T14 in the past two years, had a strong performance at The Players

• Shane Lowry (60/1): Finished T16, T3, and T21 in the past three years at Augusta. He has two top fives and a top twenty over the last three weeks

• Thorbjorn Olesen (160/1): While highly unlikely, Olesen has made three appearances at the Masters since 2013, finishing T6, T44, and T21. He could be a good top 20 or each way bet given the long odds

Quick Hits:

• David Puig 🇪🇸 lost out in a playoff against American John Catlin on the Asian Tour in Macau

  • Puig is first in the order of merit on the Asian Tour after winning an event earlier this season

  • Catlin became the first person to shoot a 59 on the tour during the third round on Saturday

• One of the most intriguing moments of the weekend at The Players was a rules discussion between Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, and Jordan Spieth

  • The three golfers had an argument about where McIlroy’s drive went into the water, and it resulted in some of the best on- course TV we have seen in quite some time

Coming up this week on Tour:

• The Valspar Championship takes place in Innisbrook on the PGA Tour

  • Most of the top players will be taking the week off, but the event is headlined by Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, and Justin Thomas

• The DP World Tour starts the Asian Swing at the Porsche Singapore Classic

  • Shane Lowry, Matthieu Pavon, and Paul Casey will be in the field

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