Breakfast Ball #78: The Final Two

It is hard to believe the final men’s major of the year is next week. We will have a full preview of The Open Championship at Royal Portrush next Monday!

In This Week’s Newsletter:

Ryder Cup European Team Update: Who are the players in contention for the final two spots on the team?

When Ryder Cup teams are selected, the first ten names are usually straightforward. It’s the final two spots that tend to spark the most discussion and scrutiny, despite the fact that those players may only feature in one or two sessions over the weekend.

Last week, I looked at the ten players who are all but certain to make the European team for September. This week, the focus shifts to six contenders still in the mix for those final two places. I will grade each player based on their 2025 performance to date, and make the case for their inclusion on the team.

Firmly in the Conversation

Matt Fitzpatrick: C+

Starts: 16 | Top 20s: 3 | Top 5s: 0 | Wins: 0

It’s rare for any Ryder Cup side to overlook a 30-year-old major champion. Yet Matt Fitzpatrick’s place on the team is far from certain, following a disappointing run of form over the past 18 months. Once ranked as high as eighth in the world, he has since slipped to 75th, recording just two top-five finishes in his last 41 starts.

Still, there have been signs of revival in recent weeks. Fitzpatrick has missed only one cut in his last nine appearances and recorded his first top-10 finish at a major since 2023 with a strong showing at the PGA Championship. If Luke Donald prioritises experience and pedigree over recent results, Fitzpatrick could well find himself teeing it up at Bethpage this September.

Aaron Rai: B

Starts: 17 | Top 20s: 7 | Top 5s: 1 | Wins: 0

Aaron Rai has quietly established himself as one of Europe’s steadiest performers on the PGA Tour. He’s finished inside the top 35 at all three majors this season and claimed his first Tour title at the Wyndham Championship last August. Renowned for his precision off the tee, Rai leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy, finding 74% of fairways - a remarkable stat in today’s power-driven game.

That accuracy, however, comes with a trade-off. Rai ranks 166th in driving distance, averaging just 287 yards. At a course like Bethpage Black, where length will be a distinct advantage, Rai would likely need to be paired with a more powerful partner - someone who can complement his consistency and capitalise on his reliability from the fairway. That would be particularly valuable if the U.S. captain decides to grow the rough and rely on his team’s ability to overpower the course.

Rasmus Højgaard: C

Starts: 16 | Top 20s: 3 | Top 5s: 1 | Wins: 0

In stark contrast to Rai’s precision, Rasmus Højgaard’s game is built on raw power. The young Dane ranks just 152nd in driving accuracy at 54%, but sits 8th in driving distance, averaging a towering 315 yards off the tee. Still adjusting in his first full season on the PGA Tour after graduating from the DP World Tour, Højgaard has shown flashes of his considerable potential. He notably held off Rory McIlroy down the stretch to win the Irish Open at Royal County Down last autumn, proving he can deliver under serious pressure.

However, his only top-five finish this season came alongside his twin brother and 2023 Ryder Cupper, Nicolai Højgaard, in the team format at the Zurich Classic. If Luke Donald values explosive distance and upside, Rasmus could get the nod. But if consistency and control are the priority, particularly off the tee, Aaron Rai may offer the safer, more complementary option.

In Contention

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen: A

Starts: 14 | Top 20s: 7 | Top 5s: 3 | Wins: 0

There’s a long-standing tradition of European Ryder Cup teams investing in the future by selecting players with limited experience but significant potential. Ludvig Åberg was a prime example in 2023, earning a captain’s pick just four months into his professional career. In 2025, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen could be the next to follow that path.

The 25-year-old Dane earned promotion to the DP World Tour after winning three times on the Challenge Tour last season, and he’s wasted no time making an impression at the next level. His game is impressively well-rounded - combining solid length off the tee with consistent ball striking and sharp approach play. A T12 finish at the U.S. Open has further elevated his profile and positioned him as a genuine contender for a wildcard spot.

If Luke Donald is thinking not just about winning this year, but about building a team for the future, Neergaard-Petersen offers a compelling case: a composed, modern player with upside to feature in Ryder Cups for years to come.

Thomas Detry: B

Starts: 20 | Top 20s: 4 | Top 5s: 2 | Wins: 1

European golfers have been in dominant form on the PGA Tour in 2025. Rory McIlroy, Sepp Straka, Ludvig Åberg, and Viktor Hovland have all collected titles and cemented their places on the Ryder Cup team. One European winner, however, still finds himself on the outside looking in: Thomas Detry.

The Belgian made a huge statement in February, cruising to a seven-shot victory at the WM Phoenix Open against a stacked field that included Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and Jordan Spieth. It was a breakthrough performance - the kind that usually launches a Ryder Cup bid.

But Detry has struggled to maintain that momentum. Since that emphatic win, he has managed just one top-20 finish (a solid showing at the U.S. Open) and has missed the cut at both The Masters and the PGA Championship. The inconsistency has left his Ryder Cup chances hanging in the balance.

With The Open Championship and several key PGA Tour events still to come, Detry has a clear opportunity to make a final push. If he can recapture the form he showed in Phoenix, he’ll give Luke Donald plenty to think about, but time is running out.

Harry Hall: B+

Starts: 19 | Top 20s: 8 | Top 5s: 0 | Wins: 0

Golf has become increasingly data-driven over the past decade, thanks to innovations like ShotLink and the rise of strokes gained statistics, which allow for detailed analysis of every shot hit. On the European Ryder Cup team, Edoardo Molinari plays a central role in applying that data. As a Vice Captain, he uses analytics to build pairings based on complementary skill sets, giving each duo the best possible chance of success.

If statistical insight plays a key role in team selection as well as pairings, then Harry Hall may be a surprise contender for one of the final spots. While he currently sits 73rd in the Official World Golf Rankings, he ranks 24th in DataGolf’s purely stats-based model — making him the 8th-highest European in that system.

The Englishman is in excellent form, with six consecutive top-25 finishes and a place secured in The Open via final qualifying last week. Hall’s biggest weapon is his putter: over the past 12 months, he ranks third in strokes gained: putting among all players worldwide. That kind of proficiency on the greens could be hugely valuable in match play, where momentum and clutch putting often swing results.

His inclusion will likely depend on a strong finish to the season, but if the European team leans on data for their final selections, Harry Hall might just find himself in the mix.

Honorable Mentions

Nicolai Højgaard was on the team in 2023, but has not been able to produce consistent results on the PGA Tour. Sergio Garcia regained his DP World Tour membership specifically to make a push for a Ryder Cup place, but is unlikely to make the team solely based on his past experience. David Puig is an exciting young talent with a bright future, but will not feature in discussions without a strong performance at the Open Championship. Matt Wallace is desperate to make the team, but simply doesn’t have the results to match his desire.

My Final Picks

Drum roll please… here is my team for the 2025 Ryder Cup!

Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Åberg, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Bob MacIntyre, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rasmus Højgaard

Locked In: McIlroy, Rahm, Åberg, Fleetwood, Hatton, Hovland

Probably In: Straka, Lowry, Rose, MacIntyre

Last two in: R. Højgaard, Fitzpatrick

First two out: Rai, Neergaard-Petersen

Could make a run: Detry, Hall, Wallace

Needs a big win: Puig, N. Højgaard, Garcia

Pictures and other content from Royal Portrush ahead of the start of the Open Championship next week

This time next week players will be on site for the first practice round of the 2025 Open Championship. Earlier this year I did a course profile on Royal Portrush, and it is truly a special piece of land on the northern edge of Ireland. Many players have been taking scouting missions to the course in recent weeks, so we have plenty of early content to look at.

Fried Egg Golf is one of my favorite publications. They produced a great video detailing some of the intricacies of the course’s architecture in this video. It is well worth a look.

Results on Tour:

• 📈 Daniel Brown, who was a surprise contender at The Open last year, won the BMW International Open on the DP World Tour

  • A strong field including Sergio Garcia (Cut), David Puig (T11), Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen (T14), and Patrick Reed (Cut) took part in the event

• 🤯 The world’s number one ladies amateur Lottie Woad blew the competition away with a six stroke victory at the Irish Women’s Open at Carton House

  • The Englishwoman is going into her final year at Florida State University, and this was her first professional win

  • Just three players were within 10 shots of the champion!

• 🚜 Brian Campbell won the John Deere Classic on the PGA Tour in a playoff against Emiliano Grillo

  • Norwegian Kris Ventura was the best of the Europeans in T27

• 🔙 Lee Westwood qualified for his first major in three years by winning the Open Championship final qualifier at Dundonald Links

  • The 52-year-old carded rounds of 70 and 67 to lead the 36-hole marathon on seven-under and punch his ticket to Royal Portrush

  • Other notable Europeans to qualify included Harry Hall, Jacob Skov Olesen, and Angel Hidalgo

• 🇪🇪 The shot of the week comes from Open final qualifying: Estonian amateur Richard Teder became the first golfer from Estonia to ever qualify for the Open Championship with an eagle hole out on the third playoff hole!

  • Estonia opened its first ever golf course in 1993 and has just ten courses across the country today

  • Teder’s reaction was absolutely priceless

Coming up this week on Tour

• The PGA Tour will make its way across the Atlantic for its joint event with the DP World Tour, the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club

• LIV Golf is in Spain for LIV Andalucia at Valderrama

If you have any feedback for the newsletter or would like to get in touch, I would love to hear from you! Email [email protected] or message us on Twitter/X at @BlueHorizonGolf. Thank you for reading!