Breakfast Ball #14: Masters Preview

The Masters is here. Play will begin on Thursday morning with the traditional ceremonial tee off by former champions.

Today, we preview the tournament by evaluating each European player in the field and providing our picks to win it all. Lets get into it!

In This Week’s Newsletter:

Masters Preview: European Player Predictions

2023 brought us the 14th European title at The Masters with Jon Rahm winning by four strokes. Which of the Europeans will have a chance this year?

Ludvig Aberg 🇸🇪 (28/1)

Best Result: First Appearance | 2023 Result: First Appearance

Goal: Top 30 | Prediction: Top 40

Ludvig is one of Europe’s brightest young stars. He definitely has the ability to win a number of Major championships in the future. However, this is his first major championship appearance. He has enough raw talent to make the cut, but his ceiling is likely low as it is difficult to win on your first major appearance, and harder to do so in your first Augusta appearance. 28/1 is a very short price, so I would probably avoid it.

Matt Fitzpatrick 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (40/1)

Best Result: T7 (2016) | 2023 Result: T10

Goal: Top 10 | Prediction: Top 20

Matt Fitzpatrick is one of the Europeans that has a chance of winning The Masters. In his 8 appearances as a pro (Fitzpatrick missed the cut as an amateur), Fitzpatrick has made the cut in every appearance and only finished outside the top 40 once. After figuring out some issues with his driver, his form has improved at in 2024. He has the profile to win at Augusta, but his driver will have to behave for him to have a chance.

Tommy Fleetwood 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (50/1)

Best Result: T14 (2022) | 2023 Result: 33

Goal: Top 15 | Prediction: Top 40

Tommy Fleetwood is a difficult nut to crack. After missing the cut in his first Masters appearance, he has made the cut in his last 6 appearances. However, the wait for an elusive win on US soil goes on. Despite winning in his first start in Dubai this year, I haven’t seen anything from Fleetwood on tour this year that convinces me he has what it takes to make a run in Augusta.

Sergio Garcia 🇪🇸 (75/1)

Best Result: Winner (2017) | 2023 Result: CUT

Goal: Top 30 | Prediction: Top 30

Sergio has been rolling back the years lately. Despite not picking up any victories, he has come second in two LIV Golf events this year, losing both in a playoff. His most recent second place finish was yesterday at LIV Golf Miami, where he was visibly upset after the defeat. He is a past champion with plenty to prove after his move to LIV. Sergio might be a sneaky bet for a top 10 at 6/1.

Tyrell Hatton 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (55/1)

Best Result: T18 (2021) | 2023 Result: T34

Goal: Top 10 | Prediction: Top 40

Similar to Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrell Hatton is a bit of an unknown substance. His last win came in January 2021 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. His T4 in Miami yesterday was his second top 10 in five LIV appearances to date. He hasn’t really challenged at Augusta in his seven starts, and I don’t see that changing in 2024.

Nicolai Højgaard 🇩🇰 (150/1)

Best Result: First Appearance | 2023 Result: First Appearance

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Miss Cut

Nicolai Højgaard is going through a rough stretch of form over the last 8 weeks. He is extremely talented and only 23 years old, so he has plenty of good years ahead of him. We saw a glimpse of his potential in his win at the DP World Tour Championship in November, and his performance at the Farmers Insurance Open in January. However, his best finish since late January was a T31 and this is his first appearance at The Masters.

Viktor Hovland 🇳🇴 (35/1)

Best Result: T7 (2023) | 2023 Result: T7

Goal: Top 10 | Prediction: Top 40

If you saw that Viktor Hovland was 35/1 to win The Masters after his FedEx Cup Tour Championship win last November, you would have put a healthy sum of money on those odds. However, 2024 has not been kind to Hovland so far. He came into last year’s Masters off the back of a T3 at The Players and a top 10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His best result so far this year is a T19 at The Genesis. His struggles around the green have returned (he was last in the field in SG: ARG at The Players) and he is desperate for some form. Augusta is not usually the place to find some.

Stephan Jaeger 🇩🇪 (180/1)

Best Result: First Appearance | 2023 Result: First Appearance

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Top 40

Stephan Jaeger has been one of the stories of 2024. After yo-yoing between the PGA Tour and Korn Ferry Tour for 8 years, Jaeger had enough. Two years ago, he decided to add some distance to his game and went from being 10 yards shorter off the tee than the average tour player to 10 yards longer. This resulted in his first PGA Tour win at the Houston Open this year after 134 winless starts. Jaeger has the profile to be successful at Augusta, but it is his first time playing there so his ceiling is limited.

Shane Lowry 🇮🇪 (50/1)

Best Result: T3 (2022) | 2023 Result: T16

Goal: Top 5 | Prediction: Top 10

Lowry has shown that he has what it takes to compete at Augusta, and he has been in good form over the last couple of months. At 50/1, he does seem like a solid value bet given his finishes at the last four Masters (T16, T3, T21, T25), but he also only has 1 win since his Open Championship victory in July 2019. I would love to see Lowry competing on the back nine on Sunday, and something tells me he will be in one of those final groups.

Rory McIlroy 🇪🇺 (10/1)

Best Result: 2 (2022) | 2023 Result: CUT

Goal: Win | Prediction: Top 5

Another year, another opportunity for Rory to complete the career major slam. It feels like the chance for him to do so may have passed. This will be his 16th start at Augusta National, and he has had seven top ten finishes in that time. McIlroy just had his best finish of the year to date at the Valero Texas Open, finishing in 3rd. It will be real shame if Rory can’t get the green jacket. Despite his age, he is still the longest driver on tour, and from a statistical point of view he should be built to succeed at Augusta National. We would all love to see him do just that.

Adrian Meronk 🇵🇱 (180/1)

Best Result: CUT (2023) | 2023 Result: CUT

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Top 40

Meronk made the move to LIV Golf after being named the DP World Tour player of the year in 2023. Since then, he has had two top ten finishes in his five starts. Last year was the classic baptism of fire for the Pole, but I think he can learn from that and make the cut this year.

José Maria Olazabal 🇪🇸 (5000/1)

Best Result: Winner (1994 & 1999) | 2023 Result: CUT

Goal: Have Fun | Prediction: Miss Cut

Olazabal is a legend of European golf. As a former champion, he will continue to be invited back to play at Augusta until he no longer feels like he can. Last year, he lost 38 yards in driving distance to the field. Unfortunately, it is hard to make the cut from there.

Thorbjørn Olesen 🇩🇰 (180/1)

Best Result: T6 (2013) | 2023 Result: N/A

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Top 50

Olesen is playing at The Masters for the first time since 2019 thanks to a special invite from the Augusta National committee. He has made the cut in all three of his appearances, and just had his first top 20 on the PGA Tour this season with a T14 at the Valero Texas Open. He will probably be quite close to the cutline, but his previous experience at Augusta should get him there.

Matthieu Pavon 🇫🇷 (200/1)

Best Result: First Appearance | 2023 Result: First Appearance

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Miss Cut

Pavon is making his first appearance at The Masters after winning the Farmers Insurance Open in January. He missed the cut at The Players and was T52 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but had a slight return to form at the Porsche Singapore Classic. However, your first start at The Masters is a very difficult proposition.

Jon Rahm 🇪🇸 (12/1)

Best Result: Winner (2023) | 2023 Result: Winner

Goal: Win | Prediction: Top 10

Jon Rahm will start his week hosting the Champion’s Dinner with a menu full of Spanish delights. Rahm has finished in the top ten in his first five starts on LIV Golf, but has yet to get over the line as a winner. In fact, The Masters last year was his last victory. He has spoken about how he missed the early PGA Tour season that he has dominated in the past. While he is likely to perform well, I don’t think the change in preparation will help Rahm.

Justin Rose 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (110/1)

Best Result: 2 (2017 & 2015) | 2023 Result: T16

Goal: Top 10 | Prediction: Top 30

Justin Rose has been one of the most consistent performers on tour for the last 15 years. That can also be said for the Masters. He has finished in the top 25 in 14 of his 17 starts at Augusta stretching back to 2004. While I don’t think he has quite enough to win, you should trust that form to continue here.

Sepp Straka 🇦🇹 (150/1)

Best Result: T30 (2022) | 2023 Result: T46

Goal: Top 30 | Prediction: Miss Cut

Sepp Straka will be making his third appearance at The Masters in 2024. He has made the cut in his first two appearances, but this year has not been kind to him thus far. His best result came at The Sentry in January (T12), and he has struggled with the flat stick, rating below average in putting in six of his eight starts. That does not project well for Augusta National.

Danny Willett 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (350/1)

Best Result: Winner (2016) | 2023 Result: CUT

Goal: Make Cut | Prediction: Miss Cut

The 2016 champion is still a doubt for The Masters this year as he has not played in six months after having shoulder surgery in September. If he does tee it up, it is difficult to see him making the cut after going through rehab for a major shoulder injury. Let’s hope he is fit and ready to go.

Masters Preview: Our Picks for the Championship

Well, you made it. Now it is time for us to make four picks for The Masters, all of varying possibilities.

Favorite Pick: Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸 (4/1)

I know, this is incredibly boring. But why would you bet against Scottie Scheffler right now? Sure, his putting isn’t going to set the world alight. However, he is by far the best ball striker on planet Earth. He was more than one stroke worse than average in putting per round in The Masters last year and still finished T10. If Scottie can just be serviceable on the greens, he will win this tournament.

Mid-Range Pick: Hideki Matsuyama 🇯🇵 (22/1)

The 2021 Masters champion is a man in form. His odds have been shortening over the past six weeks as he has put on a show with his ball striking. His win at the Genesis Invitational was topped off by a record 62, the lowest closing round in Riviera history. Hideki has been in the top 20 in the last four Masters, and his last 4 finishes on tour this year have been T7, T6, T12, Win. He will be in the mix.

Long-ish Shot Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (40/1)

Matt Fitzpatrick has the profile to win at Augusta. He drives the ball well (when he doesn’t have a mystery weight in his driver), he is good around the greens, and clinical with his putter. He finished T10 last year and T14 in 2022. He is trending upward and this could be the year we see the first English winner since Nick Faldo in 1996.

Long Shot Pick: Corey Conners 🇨🇦 (65/1)

Conners had his worst finish at The Masters to date in 2023, shooting a Friday 79 to miss the cut by five shots. However, in the three years before that, Conners finished T6, T8, and T10. He has not missed a cut since the US Open last June, and had two top 20 finishes at The Players and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. It is most certainly a long shot, but the past results at Augusta and his current form is hard to ignore.

Quick Hits:

• Akshay Bhatia won the Valero Texas Open, defeating fellow American Denny McCarthy in a playoff

  • McCarthy shot a course record back nine 28 to force a playoff, but hit his approach shot in the water in the first playoff hole

  • McIlroy finished in 3rd place, nine (yes, 9 shots) strokes behind the two men in the playoff

  • There were other impressive performances for Tommy Fleetwood 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (T7), Matt Fitzpatrick 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 (T10), Ludvig Aberg 🇸🇪 (T14), Alex Noren 🇸🇪 (T14), and Thorbjørn Olesen 🇩🇰 (T14)

• Dean Burmester won LIV Miami in a two hole playoff against Spaniard Sergio Garcia 👎️ 

  • Garcia was visibly emotional after the loss, which was his third playoff defeat in the last year

Coming up this week on Tour:

• Well if you have gotten this far, you should probably know that The Masters is on this weekend :)

If you have any feedback for the newsletter or would like to get in touch, I would love to hear from you! Email [email protected] or message us on Twitter/X at @BlueHorizonGolf. Thank you for reading!